By Richard Billies of AllThingsPoliticalToday.com

We’ve all heard the expression, “Numbers to know, Numbers to show.” Well, today we’re seeing it in action. All across the globe, we’re seeing governments fighting the battle of perception. What battle is that? Well, it’s what was known in Vietnam as the “battle for the hearts and minds” of the people. In the United States, Barack Obama is waging this battle as part of his reelection campaign. Let’s look at some of the “numbers to show”.

The President began this offensive by trumpeting the falling unemployment numbers and the entire mainstream media fell for it, hook, line and sinker. Why, because they’re a fairly lazy group and quite honestly, they’ve invested heavily in his success. Only a few of the media took the time to examine the underlying employment figures that are available for everyone to see at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Over the course of the Obama administration we have seen a steady decline in overall employment in the United States. In a recent post, The Real Jobs Report, you can see all of the charts and graphs. Suffice it to say, the U.S. economy cannot continue to bleed employment and prosper. As a country we cannot afford to have 13 to 14 million people unemployed.

The real unemployment rate without seasonal unemployment (a statistician’s figment) is 10.3% according the the highly respected Gallup. This is actually up by 0.5% from the month before. The number of part-time workers also rose by 0.5%, from 9.1% to 9.6%. Taken together, the unemployment/underemployment rate is a staggering 19.9%.

Let’s face it. This is a number to know, not a number to show. They simply don’t fit the
Obama reelection template. That template, as crafted by David Axelrod and David Plouffe, is that Barack Obama has succeeded in resurrecting the U.S. economy. The mainstream media has its marching orders and has dutifully begun the drumbeat from the President. They are counting on the American people not taking the time to investigate these “numbers to show.”

One of their prime examples of success has to do with the rising stock market. It’s there for all to see, the market is rising. Again, these are numbers to show. The actual numbers to know tell a different story. According to economist James Fitzgibbon, of the Highlander Fund and several other respected economics observers simply say that the statistics have been cooked.

Fitzgibbon says that they are no indication of changes in the public mood because the public isn’t doing the investing anymore. He notes that HFT (high frequency trade computers) now “account for 80 percent [of the market's] daily business. No one else is left because they lost their money in 2008 and the public has fled the market … Total NYSE volume is 67 percent lower on average than in 2008. Volume is 29 percent lower this year compared to 2011. The prices [have] no serious meaning.”

The Obama administration is pointing to the increase in consumer borrowing but that appears to be a bogus statistic. With the switch in student loan borrowing from private sources to the government, this has been part of the borrowing metric, skewing the numbers to show, while the numbers to know are an entirely different matter. Fitzgibbon adds ominously, “massive credit card use as measured against actual verifiable sales shows the increase is in borrowed funds to pay for food! Not my idea of a healthy sign.”

Claiming that auto sales are up is a complete deception. Apparently, GM dealers are drowning in cars and trucks. Claiming that there has been a jump in sales is a complete deception. Dealer-to- consumer sales is showing no growth at all. Go and look at the stuffed dealer lots. While the industry is reporting an annual manufacturing rate of 1.2 million automobiles, the sell-through to the consumer is nowhere near that volume. In fact, auto sales in January declined by 1.1%. Again, we are seeing the numbers to show, not the numbers to know. (The charts on the preceding link are really enlightening.)

Finally, the housing industry, which is a bellweather of the U.S. economy, has continued in the doldrums. Despite home builders optimism that housing starts will pick up in the spring, the industry has a long way to go. Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, said the index is now consistent with new home sales rising to more than 450,000 annually. While that’s well below the 700,000 considered healthy, it would be an improvement from the recent trend of just over 300,000.

Be careful about believing rosy predictions and forecasts from any politician who is seeking reelection. Remember that you are seeing the numbers to show and not the numbers to know.